CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF FORCED MIGRATION OF EDUCATORS AND YOUTH STUDENTS

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of the causes and consequences of the forced migration of educators and students, which occurs in the context of socio-economic crises, full-scale military aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine, political repression, and ineffective education system reforms. A graph showing the dynamics of changes in the volume of student youth departure from Ukraine for 2018–2024 has been constructed, with a reflection of the main factors affecting migration processes. Thus, during 2018–2022, there is a steady increase in the number of students going abroad. In 2023–2024, a further increase in this number is predicted, which corresponds to the trends of the past years. In 2022, there was a significant increase in the share of students leaving due to the socio-economic and political crisis. This trend remained significant in 2023 and 2024, as the political situation in the country remained unstable. A diagram of the dynamics of the migration of educators for the period 2020–2024 was constructed, based on five main determinants: the economic sphere, political situation, better working conditions in EU countries, the development of academic mobility, and personal factors. Thus, political factors have become the main reason for migration since 2022, and their influence has continuously increased, reaching 70% in 2024. The percentage of migration due to economic difficulties increased from 45% in 2022 to 55% in 2024, owing to the economic crisis caused by the war and inflation. A regression analysis was carried out to investigate how changes in the level of migration of students and teachers (using the number of migrants as an example) can affect economic indicators (such as GDP per capita). The results of the regression analysis indicate a negative correlation between the number of migrating students and teachers and the economic development of Ukraine. Thus, migration causes the loss of human capital, which has a direct impact on the development of the national economy. The results of the study will be useful for the development of policies aimed at supporting educators and students who were forced to emigrate, improving the higher education system, adapting programs to new realities, and developing international educational initiatives.