MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE NUMBER OF HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS IN UKRAINE

Abstract

In order to study higher education institutions, the number of higher education institutions in Ukraine was considered as the dependent variable of the model. The following indicators were selected as explanatory variables, based on economic and information accessibility considerations: applicants admitted to higher education institutions for the first time; graduates; and the number of postgraduate students. The Chaddock scale was used to identify the most interdependent indicators. When testing the array of explanatory variables for multicollinearity and the procedure of stepwise selection of explanatory variables, incomplete multicollinearity was found. The correlation coefficient was calculated and was 0,719. That is, it can be argued that 71,9% of the dependent variable «number of higher education institutions» can be explained by the independent variable as x-persons admitted to higher education institutions for the first time, and 28,1% by other random factors. When performing the econometric specification, a multivariate regression model was considered. The theoretical and statistical justification of the econometric model was carried out, the model was tested for multicollinearity, the functional form of the econometric model, the selection of significant explanatory variables for the econometric model, and the multiple regression model was chosen as the basis. A graphical analysis of the residuals is carried out. With a 90% probability, it can be stated that with an increase in the number of applicants admitted to HEIs for the first time by 1000 people, the minimum increase in the number of HEIs will be 0,401 units, and the maximum 0,61 units. At P=95%, it can be stated that with an increase in the number of applicants admitted to the HEI for the first time by 1000 people, the minimum increase in the number of HEIs will be 0,39 units, and the maximum will be 0,63 units. With a probability of 99%, it can be stated that with an increase in the number of applicants for the first time admitted to the HEI by 1000 people, the minimum increase in the number of HEIs will be 0,34 units, and the maximum 0,68 units.